The Employment Situation

Another month, another depressing employment report. The eighth straight month of payroll employment declines (job losses of 605,000 since December, seasonally adjusted). (The CPS employment data are down for only 4 straight months, but the job loss is larger--750,000). The highest unemployment rate (6.1%) since September 2003. The unemployment rate is up 1.7 percentage points from its cyclical low in March 2007. The lowest employment-population ratio (62.1%)since (again) September 2003, down 1.3 percentage points from its cyclical high in December 2006. This sure looks and feels like a recession.