In which I suggest that Jared Bernstein got some things wrong.
This was written by an economist whose work I generally
find worthwhile.
https://www.vox.com/2019/8/16/20807099/trump-tariffs-china-trade-policy-democrats
But see if you can determine what's wrong with this:
https://www.vox.com/2019/8/16/20807099/trump-tariffs-china-trade-policy-democrats
But see if you can determine what's wrong with this:
"For example, about a decade ago, the
Obama administration placed a tariff on a specific grade of Chinese tire
exports, which our Commerce Department believed were being sold here as much as
200 percent below their normal market value."
I'm sure you all got this one right. Assume the normal value of those tires was $75. To sell then to us for 200% below their normal value would be...let's see...200% of $75 is $150...so they were selling them for -$75? PAYING us $75 per tire to take them?
You know what he meant? He meant that the normal market value was 200%--2 times-- as much as they were being sold for. So the normal market value of those tires would have been $150 and they would have sold, or course, for $75...If say "At 50% below their normal value," it's not as dramatic as saying "At 200% below their normal market value.\
Am I picking nits? I don't think so...And then there’s more:
"Another problem with Trump’s current approach is
that its goal is balanced trade."
The real problem AS TRUMP SEES IT is not balanced vs.
unbalanced trade, it's RUNNING A TRADE DEFICIT WITH A SPECIFIC COUNTRY. That
is, Trump believes (or seems to believe) that trade between the US and China should result in either balance--our
exports to China are equal in value to our imports from China--of in a trade
surplus for us. But bi-lateral trade balances are
all but meaningless. I would guarantee you that China has bilateral trade
deficits with some countries. And that the US has bilateral trade surpluses
with some countries.
AND Bernstein is wrong (in my judgment, although trade
economics is not one of my specialties) in saying that the goal is an overall
balance--value of exports equals value of imports across all the countries that
we trade with.[1] For most of the 19th century, the US ran export SURPLUSES,
mostly because we were (particularly relative to Europe) a developing country.
And a lot of developing countries run export surpluses. And China is still
(relatively speaking) a developing country. And the US is not.[2] He's also
wrong in saying "On the other side, globalization’s cheerleaders...view
trade deficits as always benign." Even globalization's "cheerleaders"
would answer, if asked whether persistent trade deficits or trade surpluses are
"benign" or "problematic" would answer, "It
depends." (Which is almost always the correct answer in economics.)
[1] GLOBALLY, the value of exports equals the
value of imports, because we don't currently trade with any other planets. Just
wait...
[2] According to the CIA's "fact
book", [ the US ranks 19th globally in GDP per capita, mostly behind a
group of small countries, like Liechtenstein, Bermuda, the Isle of Man, and
some larger economies, like Singapore and Ireland. China is 108th, just ahead
of Brazil.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html
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