Another truly brilliant idea by baseball management

Jim Bowden, late of the Cincinnati Reds and currently with the Washington Nationals has proposed one of the truly dumb ideas about how to reorganize the competitive structure of major league baseball: Arrange teams into divisions according to the revenue they receive.

If we uses Forbes' estimates of revenue for the 2003 season, and keep the league structure unchanged, this is what we'd get:

American League
The Rich............The Middle...........The Poor
Yankees.............Indians..................Royals
Red Sox..............Rangers................Blue Jays
Mariners............White Sox.............Twins
Orioles................Tigers....................Devil Rays
Angels.................Athletics

National League
The Rich............The Middle...........The Poor
Mets...................Astros....................Pirates
Cubs....................D-backs................Padres
Braves.................Rockies.................Brewers
Dodgers...............Reds.....................Marlins
Giants..................Phillies.................Nationals*
Cardinals
*But probably not based on 2005 revenues, as a new team in D.C.

In that alignment, in 2004, I'd guess your AL playoff teams would have been the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Athletics, and the Twins. In the NL, the Braves, the Cardinals, the Astros, and the...well, I really don't know who would have been likely to win the Poor Division. But the playoffs wouldn't have looked much different, would they?

This is not a completely insane idea--but it's close. It would do some useful things. It would force the owners of Major League Baseball teams to decide how to define revenue. And it would probably force them, as well, to disclose that revenue (or, alternatively, live with the leaks).

But as an idea designed to foster competition, it is truly awful.

First, to the extent that it worked, segregating low-revenue teams into their own divisions would mean that, on average, the quality of the teams making the playoffs would fall. Strictly speaking, this would be true if revenue is positively correlated with payrolls and payrolls are positively correlated with winning. Asking your fan base to accept a proposal that lowers--that must lower--the quality of championship play seems a bit much. What we have here is affirmative action for bad teams.

Second, it could lead to a team "dumping" late in one season so as to reduce their revenues and allow the team to "move down" to a division composed of worse teams. Any proposal that reduces a team's incentives to win within one season is not a good one. This problem could be mitigated by using something like a 5-year average of revenue, but the problem is still there.

Third, it could reduce the stability of scheduling and of the divisional structures. While this is not necessarily a major problem (English football leagues manage to deal with it, through a system of "demoting" the worst performing teams to what amounts to a minor league, and promoting the best teams from the minors), it's still an issue. The instability complicates scheduling and would probably increase travel costs. Look at the example above, particularly in the AL Rich Division--3 east coast teams and 2 west coast teams. Or the NL Rich Division.

Fourth, it rewards incompetent management in large market cities. The Phillies, for example, spent some time being a low-revenue team in a large market. The White Sox also would seem (to me) to fall into that category.

And, fifth, it could lead to pairs of "natural rivals" winding up in different divisions. For example, the Cubs and the Cardinals might wind up in different divisions (as they almost do in the example above). That change could damage the revenues of both teams. Furthermore, lumping low-revenue teams together, while it would guarantee one (or more) of them playoff spots might, perversely, reduce their overall revenue. After all, what you'd have is lower quality teams playing each other more often. Now, that's a formula for fan interest.

So if your purpose is to reward teams that can't manage themselves well, if your objective is to reduce the quality of play in the playoffs, then this is for you.