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Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Izturis and Cedeno

The Chicago Cubs tradd Greg Maddux to the Los Angeles Dodgers, getting Cesar Izturis in return; they also traded Todd Walker to San Diego. Their current plan is apparently to play Ronnie Cedeno at second base. Where they'll hit is unclear, but Izturis batted second last night and Cedeno did notplay (he pinch hit).

So far in their careers, Izturis shows up as a better fielder than Cedeno (data at shortstop only. Ozzie Smith shown for comparison purposes; Smith's numbers are per game; I couldn't find his innings played at shortstop. But Ozzie is clearly superior to either--and superior offensively, too. But, then, he is in the Hall of Fame, so what'd I expect? Also for comparison, Cal Ripken averaged 4.2 TC/G, including his time at third base.):

.................................Izturis..........Cedeno..........O. Smith
TC/9 Innings...........4.49...............4.25...............5.14
PO/9.........................1.43...............1.31................1.16
A/9............................2.97...............2.78...............3.33
E/9............................0.09...............0.15..............1.11

DP/9.........................0.47................0.57..............o.63

Over a 162-game season, Izturis has made about 20 more put-outs and 34 more assists than Cedeno. This is not insignificant.

Also, in their careers, they are essentially equal as hitters--Izturis (and his 2004 season begins to look like a fluke at this point) with a career line (BA/OBA/SA/OPS) of .261/.295/.340/.635 to Cedeno's .263/.293/.345/.638--that's about as identical as you're going to see, I think. Cedeno is 23, Izturis is 26, so Cedeno might have more room to develop, while Izturis is nearing his peak. Neither is much of a stolen base threat. Izuris is 59SB/33CS (but only 34/24outside 2004), while Cedeno is 7/7.

So the Cubs apparently plan to play two on-base sinks regularly, with one batting at the top of the order. I suppose they could play 33-year-old Neifi Perez at second (.269/.299/.379/.678 offensively, with good fielding stats at second--a total of 5.69 TC/9 at second). But that's another on-base sink.

So for Maddux, the Cubs got an older, better defensive version of Cedeno's offense, and they now have three middle infielders on their roster who can't hit for average or for power or get on base. And they gave up Todd Walker, who, whateve his defensive shortcomings, has a career line of .289/.348/.437/.785 offensively, but substantively less defensively (compared with Perez, he's made almost 140 fewer plays per 162 full games at second in his career).

I'm not sure I think this made the Cubs better as a team. Maybe better defensively, but at a clear offensive cost, and probably, at least for the balance of this year, at a cost in starting pitching. I'm also not sure it made them a better team down the road.

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