Comments on economics, mystery fiction, drama, and art.

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Crucifixion


What should I post on Thanksgiving?  On November 22?  Ordinarily, on TG, I’d just post “The Alice’s Restaurant Massacree” and that would be it.  But…this is another day.  I heard Phil once explaining this song, that it had taken him more than two years to write, that he had sung it, a capella, to Robert Kennedy, in Kennedy’s Senate office.  It is, for me, one of the most amazing songs I have ever heard (it’s on his album Pleasures of the Harbor, released in 1967).  And it’s Phil’s masterpiece.  I doubt if 1 in 10,000 people in America have ever heard it. 

Phil Ochs, Crucifixion,
(From the album, released 10/31/67) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dGDYM-kYec
(Live in Montreal, 10/22/66) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPXi49dWTE4

Images of innocence charge him go on
But the decadence of destiny is looking for a pawn
To a nightmare of knowledge he opens up the gate
And a blinding revelation is laid upon his plate
That beneath the greatest love is a hurricane of hate
And God help the critic of the dawn.

The US and the "Military-Civilian Divide

This is something I never expected to have to worry about, to think about: "...in a society with a dramatic and troubling cultural divide between civilian and military communities..."
As an economist, I concluded that the use of a draft to provide for a large percentage of the enlisted members of the military effectively operated to hold the wages of those folks down--because they could be compelled to serve. And that a voluntary military would require that we pay even the lowest-ranking folks with decent pay and benefits and living/working conditions.
Frankly, that conclusion seems to have been wrong. The base pay for the lowest-ranking military personnel is barely above the minimum wage (about $18,000 per year) and the promised post-enlistment benefits (education, specifically, which comes with both tuition/books, but also with a stipend--which is how my father afforded college after WW2) seem not to be funded, or provided in an expeditious manner. And (although I never wanted to be in the military, not then, not now, in retrospect), it's increasingly the case that the people in the military (a) come from families with generations of service, and largely through the service academies and (b) through heavy recruitment aimed at people whose other prospects are not appealing.
(In fact, I recently read, in the Indianapolis Star, that the military has been unable to meet its recruiting quotas in urban areas, with the consequence that the effective labor pool is becoming even more dominated by southern and rural northern enlistees.)
I have begun to wonder if we need to make changes (once again) in how we staff the military. Raising compensation so that military service becomes more attractive to more people? Reinstating the draft (which I would accept only if we also substantially increased compensation for those drafted)? I don't have an answer. And part of the question has to be what our real needs for military personnel are; are we trying to do more than we ought to be doing (are we, in the words of the old Phil Ochs songs, trying to be "the cops of the world")? But if the premise up there a the top is correct--if there is "a dramatic and troubling cultural divide between civilian and military communities", then we need to do something, and we need to do it now.

Monday, November 19, 2018

"People" or "Places"?

When I was in grad school--at West Virginia University--one of the major local and regional development issues had to with what was then called the "people or places" approach.  The "people"-based approach emphasized helping people acquire skills and then, id necessary, helping them move to a place in which those skills would pay off.  The "place"-based approach involved providing support for local infrastructure, for attracting new businesses, and supporting local businesses.

In the context of where I was, one aspect of that was that coal mining was a (rapidly) declining source of employment and of local income.  So a "place" approach had to confront the decline of a large, declining, but high-wage (then--the United Mine Workers managed to keep wages and benefits high) industry.  And so the research group at the Regional Research Institute (I was not a part of that, and at the time really wanted to be) developed a plan for the development of a "high-tech" corridor, running along the general route of where I-79 is today (from Morgantown to Charleston), which would also feature a high-speed rail link.  The cost was in the billions, and federal money was not forthcoming.

And the "people" approach took the form of the higher-skilled people, with more education, were leaving, which only made things worse for WVA.

Later, when I was working for the city of Indianapolis, largely in identifying training opportunities for low-income, low-skilled people, we were taking basically a "people" tack.  But we also (wrongly, in my estimation) focused on jobs which appeared to be in relatively high demand (and therefore tried to push people into jobs that may have failed to maximize their chances in life.

Economic history told me that migration was one of the major causes of the dynamism of the US economy, from its earliest days through at least the 1920s.  The Great Depression, in addition to its other consequences, generated a large number of "place"-based economic development programs.

This whole issue has not gone away as this (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/11/19/americans-arent-moving-to-economic-opportunity/) piece of work indicates.  It's a very difficult issue, to say the least.  In Indiana, population has increased by about 70% since 1950 (to 2017).  15 of Indiana's (92) counties have experienced population decline over that period.  Another 18 counties have grown at about 1/3 the rate of the state as a whole.  So something like 1/3 of the state's counties have grown little, if at all.  Those counties accounted for 27% of Indiana's population in 1950, but only 16% in 2017.

The most rapidly growing counties have largely clustered around major cities, or have major universities (IU, Purdue).  What policies *should* the state of Indiana pursue?  "People"- based, or "place"-based?  Through the high school years, education is largely controlled locally.  "Should" Benton or Vermillion (both of which have seen population declines greater than 20% since 1950) devote a lot of resources to improving K-12 education, if all that means is that their "best and brightest" will find it even easier to move away?  Lake County's population has grown by about 1/3 since 1950, while its major cities (Gary, Hammond, East Chicago) have suffered extraordinary population declines (from a combines 276,000 in 1950, to 181,000 in 2017--it's even worse if we look at 1960 to 2017:  down from 348,000 to 181,000--almost a 50% decline.  From 1960 to 2017, EC has declined by 50%, Gary by 60%, and Hammond by (only) a third.

"People" or "places"?  Or do we try to do both?  And if we focus on "people," how do we return to high rates of migration to places that are booming?  How do we keep the lives of those who can't move, or have local roots that are too strong to sever, from cratering?  I wish I knew.  And if I were 30 again, I know what my life's work would be...